Stay Tuned...

This will be on hold for a few days. I will be busy, and won't have ready access to my computer, so I'll just hold off until I do... Back again Tuesday.

Orcs, it is...

Orcs. It's orcs. I was thinking about using Yuan-ti or Lizardfolk, but they don't feel right in the terrain, or acting in consort with dragons. The Yuan-ti looked interesting, but their motivations aren't to overrun anything by force, or hold it that way, so I think its better to stick with orcs.
Deciding that, I think the war party that I'm going to build is going to borrow heavily from Volo's Guide to Monsters, which has a nice section on orc lairs, and introduces several variant orc "types" that might help spice up the encounters.
I don't feel very inclined to type much up tonight, but I've got an idea now. My first thought is that there is a general, with at least three bands in the war party. Each of these bands would have a captain and an Eye of Gruumsh, as well as more generic orc soldiers. After reading Volo's, there are some interesting adjustments that can be made. For instance, orcs like to align with strength, so the general can be a Fire Giant. Orcs also can ally with ettins, werebears, and even trolls. An ettin or two might fit nicely for this encounter.
There is also a creature called a Tanarukk that is part orc, part demon. I think it will work nicely as a surprise addition to the battle. According to the section on orcs, they would also have a war wagon. I'm envisioning two, with one being a cage for the Tanarukk, and the other for loot.
That gives a nice base for building an encounter. Now I can set it up... sketch out a layout of the town, position the orcs, and scheme out their rotation. The party is slotted to arrive at or just after night fall, so there are chances to infiltrate or act against the invaders in covert fashion.

Stirrings

There is an allure to Aron's Bowl that traps many adventurers in its web. The casual disregard for law and order, the ever-present element of danger, and the wide variety of personalities make the town a raw mixture of acceptance and desire.
The danger is in the attraction the town provides to all human emotion, but that danger can be as harmful as it is intoxicating. After several days, the relative peace is shattered by riders flying into town after a long night across the plains. Their reports quickly send rumors of danger and attack throughout the town, so that the party wakes to wild theories about the threat.
Danger, marauding hordes, violence and impending doom... all the usual... As cooler heads prevail, and the truth of the situation begins to chase the rumors out, it is revealed that late the previous afternoon, a large war party poured down out of the eastern mountains, rushing across the plain to ravage Garrett's Junction. Garrett's Junction is the on the river 50 miles south of Aron's Bowl. There is another outpost twenty miles further upriver that operates more as a trading post and tavern than a proper town. Losing Garrett's Junction means that outpost is cut off and surrounded, and the surrounding farms are unprotected, open to looting and savagery. Forces are being recruited to rebuff the attack. Your party's number is called, and you are expected to ride out to repel the threat.
As an added nod to your skill and expertise, Arvost, the ward boss for the neighborhood you are in, requests that you lead the way, riding hard to control the advance of the war band while they arm their recruits and head out to rescue the town. To persuade you to react quickly, they will reveal a chest containing 100 gold pieces, and a silver horn inscribed with decorative runes.
The horn is a Horn of Valhalla, and will summon berserkers to aid you in battle. They counsel you to take care and call the berserkers only in need, since the horn takes days to recharge. With their help, Arvost believes you will be able to hold the marauders until reinforcements arrive. In their mind, they are loaning the use of the magic item, but since they don't think to mention that, it is understandable that the characters see it as a gift rather than a loan. If they decide they want to hang on to the horn, have them roll a history check (DC20) to know the horn has a chance of exploding on use, and that they can use that knowledge to claim it has been lost in order to keep it. They will need to succeed on a persuasion check (DC20) to convince Arvost it is gone.
One of the riders will lead you back across the plains toward Garrett's Junction. The river swings toward the west before curving back to the south, so they will lead you directly across the plain toward the town. A hard day's ride will bring you to the outskirts of town by sundown. The rider will counsel you against attacking at night, but will suggest you could investigate the perimeter and discover the band's defenses. There will be opportunities to skirmish before morning.
The main force will arrive late the following day. If the band noticed the party overnight, or engaged them in combat, they will sally forth to meet them in the early morning.
Tomorrow, we'll decide what we're up against.

Downtime in Aron's Bowl

Now that the group has reached the Upper Valley, the end of their quest is literally in sight. Getting there promises to offer many more challenges, however. For now, there is a last opportunity for them to engage and interact with other humanoids in a "civilized" social setting. This is a part of the adventure path where I think it works better to step back and allow them to experience their surroundings a little more deeply.
I think with the fine edge between order and chaos, there is a great opportunity to work up NPCs and have them interact with the party. Whether as shopkeeps or tradesmen, or as other adventuring types in the street, there are good opportunities to play up the personalities and enjoy some out of combat experience. This might be a good opportunity to try out some of the rules on downtime activity.
Once the party leave the town of Aron's Bowl, they will be on their own until the culmination of the adventure. Their access to stores, supplies, scrolls, potions, etc. will disappear. There are a couple of small farming villages further up the river and across the valley, but they will have little to offer adventurers other than food and very basic supplies such as rope and tools. Due to this, the players should be encouraged to take advantage of their time in Aron's Bowl. Allow them to assess their characters, tweak any supplies and preparation as they wish, and prepare for the next phase of the adventure.
The access to miners can offer further options for side treks to defend or assist at the mines in the mountains surrounding the valley. The party can use these chances to gain further gold or experience. The balance of morality in the town can also lead to direct confrontation with other adventuring parties. The groups can interact in any way they choose, without too much fear of grave consequences. If they act too aggressively or with too much violence, enough people will rally against their actions to drive them from the town, but with no central governing authority, even that is a thin punishment.
I think the best way to handle all of this is to put the matter into the players' hands and let them direct the flow of the game for a time. If they get too far afield, or beyond what you wish to allow, use the lawless nature of the area to force them back to themselves by having the dragon attack the town, or a band of orcs roll down out of the mountains to threaten the town or one of the lucrative mines. Introducing a universal threat will force them to respond in a more focused manner, and get them back to traditional gaming concerns.
I do think one good, involved side trek would be fitting before taking off after the main goal. It would also provide a good opportunity to suggest an alternate path to the dragon's lair by picking their way across the reeking fen stretching up the northeastern spur of the volcanic range. Home to dark horrors and noxious, poisonous fumes, the fens also offer an unguarded approach to the dragon's home. My preference is to have a large force attack one of the farming towns, then flee to one of the mines in the eastern range.The ward bosses will recruit the party, among others, to pursue and eliminate the raiders.

Aron's Bowl

Located atop Deadfall, overlooking the valley stretching out below, stands the frontier town of Aron's Bowl. Originally founded more by accumulation than design, Aron's Bowl is a sprawling collection of bars and brothels, mills and forges, workshops and general stores. The river brought supplies to the cliff's edge, and the miners brought all their collected wealth to the river above the cliff. Even now, it is a hodge-podge of shops and suppliers, with an equal mix of human, dwarf, gnome, half-orc and orc making up the inhabitants.
It is a literal melting pot of miners and races and metals, all blended together. There is little overt law even now, with everyone pretty much operating on their own in the same circle of civilization. The closest it comes to any organized government is an unwritten consensus that trouble stays off the streets. If anyone has an issue with anyone else, they take it out into the great wilderness surrounding the town. Generally, this is enough. On the rare occasions where it isn't, the town guard will deputize everyone handy to corral the troublemakers, take them out into the wilderness, and deal with them there.
There is a guard in the town, mostly consisting of ward bosses and three to five underlings. Since most people stick to the unwritten code, they seldom need more, recruiting any available sword when necessary to swell their ranks. There are no town leaders, although the ward bosses carry a certain authority within their wards, and the various guild halls all have their own internal structure. Again, even these are self-policing except in rare circumstances.
Aron's Bowl is nearly the last organized settlement along the river. There are another two small towns further upriver 15 and 20 miles that serve the farms that have sprung up in the last 20 years, taking advantage of the lush soil spreading back from the river and warmed by the thermal springs throughout the valley. These also serve the more remote mines in the southern mountains.
Towering over the valley to the southwest is an enormous ridge of rock rising upon itself upwards to the forboding, smoking sides of Scarred Peak. The lush bowl stretches south about 70 miles, before climbing up into festering, reeking pits of thermal mud and tar.

Trouble

Simple enough, trouble, but it comes in so many forms. In order to get to the Upper Valley, the party has three choices. They can take the long road east and make the precarious journey up the outside of the cliff, they can fall in line and make their way up through the cave system on foot, or they can negotiate passage up the cliff face on the next lift.
The caves can be navigated without guidance in a six hour span. There is always a chance of delay with other groups trying to move through the same spaces, but generally these are only short delays. Getting lost of off track is rare, but given that there are a large number of caves, some natural and others excavated, that have been connected to allow travel up through the cliff face, it is still a possibility. Regular survival checks can be made to stay on track (DC12). Failure just adds an hour to the travel time, to allow for correcting the route.
There is a danger of attack along the way. Since many of these caves are natural, or connect to natural caves, there is an opportunity to encounter various cave dwelling creatures. The most common groups encountered are bands of troglodytes, other than creature denizens, which are abundant (spiders, bats, etc.). Since the route is fairly regularly traveled, the time of day matters. Creatures like spiders can be encountered at any time, but the humanoid creatures tend to stay hidden during the day when more people are on the road. They like to attack at night, and prefer to target isolated wagons.
The party is more likely to hear signs of a scuffle and be in a position to come to someone's aid, since their gear and lack of goods make them less of a target to the attackers. If they are accompanying a group of traders, ignore the last point.
If the characters choose to negotiate passage on the lifts, the journey takes 8 hours, and may require additional time waiting while supplies are unloaded and loaded. While waiting, they can take a rest, or they may be asked to assist in defending against any close skirmishes. Once underway, the journey is mostly benign, although an equipment malfunction might cause a delay. Another possibility here would be a work stoppage in protest of some issue by the lift crew, or an attack against them by a hostile force that caused them to halt the process. In this case, the players may be interested in getting off the lift in order to assist, which could take some thought and ingenuity, not to mention a series of skill checks, I'm sure.
I don't really anticipate anyone taking the long way, but it is a treacherous route up and through mountainous terrain - ettins, giants, rockslides or avalanches, and giant bird or dragon attacks would all fit nicely.

We're Movin' on Up...

After returning to Casper with Mandilissimar, the party can arrange to secure proper healing for him, if necessary, or part amicably if they have healed him already themselves. In any event, he can find what he needs to recover fully once in town, and the party can continue on their quest.
The next stage of the journey is a momentous one, a literal watershed in terms of development, since they will finish a short 20 mile journey upriver to Deadfall. Deadfall is where the Upper Aron Valley drops into the Lower Valley. There is a 200 foot cliff running across the width of the valley from east to west, with the river plunging down over the side in dramatic fashion. For the last five miles as you approach, the roar is deafening. There is a large pool of water at the base of the cliff, with a large town on its northern edge. All river trade ceases here, as the only route to the Upper Valley is by land.
The town stretches out on either side of the Basin, with roads leading out to farms on either side of the river. There is an old road leading out of Churning that leads east toward the mountains, and a shallower cliff face. The road swings miles out of the way, and tracks a precarious journey back and forth across the face of a steep 120 foot exposed rock face. West of the Basin, the cliff rises to a maximum of 470 feet, with the eastern edge of the Iron Teeth towering over the plains of the valley.
About 5 miles east of the Basin, clear of the spray from the cascading river, and where a point of the cliff juts northward to shield the land beyond from the worst of the noise, there is another bustling "port" of sorts. Driven by the needs of the miners above for food and supplies, and the wants of the lands below and downriver for gold and precious minerals, a large lift system has been constructed to get goods up and down the cliff in volume. Originally constructed as a series of caves cut into the rock, working their way upward, the factory settlement of Clifton has expanded its endeavors by creating three giant lift systems. These can transport whole warehouses at a time up and down the cliff. The lifts are loaded in an eight hour shift, raised or lowered in about the same, then unloaded at the other end. They have one moving up and one moving down in synchronization, with the third being loaded/unloaded while the others make the trip up or down.
Several smaller lifts allow quicker movement of smaller loads in emergencies or with special cargo. The cave system is still open as well for those who can't afford the fees for the lifts. It is kept operational mostly as a conduit for maintenance, but small "local" travel is permitted as well.

Broken, but still Standing...

Confronting Mandilissimar in his tower is a challenge, but isn't meant to be debilitating. He has been tormented by the psychic whispers of the disembodied demilich, driven to madness. The madness would fall under the category of indefinite madness as outlined on p. 259 of the DMG. This creates a flaw that lasts until they are cured, dictating a lot of their actions. Mandilissimar has become consumed with his research, in particular locating the artifact he is searching for. He has become obsessed with locating and recovering it despite anything that might interfere.
Unfortunately, he is unaware of the extent that he has already gone to in his search until the undead start waking under the power of the lantern. In that moment, he becomes aware that his obsession has led him along a dark path. He is able to shake the control of the demilich in his revulsion, but the effort causes a shock to his system that brings on a long-term madness that lasts 10 hours. This break from reality sends him rushing back to his tower, overwhelmed at his own depravity, and causes a temporary amnesia to engulf him.
This amnesia, coupled with his revulsion at himself, and a healthy paranoia, leaves him in a state of mind to aggressively defend himself and his tower against assault (real or imagined). If the party arrives, he will regard them as hostile and retreat to his upper floor to rain spells upon the perceived threat. He can pose a legitimate threat while in this state, but if he can be subdued magically or physically, the amnesia will pass and he will just assume a defeated state. He will still be focused on recovering the artifact he seeks, and will begin to develop a new paranoia toward the party if he understands they have recovered anything of value from the manor.
Within the library of the mage, secured in his private study beneath the first floor, there is a collection of spell scrolls and an old map showing a rough trail leading up into the great mountain southwest of Aron's Bowl, toward the volcano holding the dragon's lair. There is little marked on it that is decipherable, but Mandilissimar can fill in the details if his madness is cured. Otherwise, the party will have to assign their own meaning to its worth.
The map shows a route Mandilissimar followed to reach the dragon's lair on one of his quests years ago. Needing access to the dragon lair for spell components, he negotiated his way through the rancorous fens that spill down the side of the volcano. In full mind, he can relate some of the terrors of that journey, plagued with elemental creatures and a tribe of slaad living in the mire. Without his full wits, he can only rant about the horror and treacherous earth of the route.

Treasure and Tower

Inside the chest are two items. One is a slender gold tube about 8 inches long, finely decorated. If looks like a tube for scroll, but there doesn't seem to be any way to open the cap. The phylactery is magically sealed, and can only be opened with a Knock or Dispel Magic spell. Once that happens, the demilich will be activated and track them down to reclaim it. If the party destroy the phylactery (arcana DC25 to recognize what it is), the lich will be destroyed. If they take it with them unopened, the demilich will reanimate within 24 hours, and try to track them down to recover the phylactery.
The second item is a beaded leather satchel, with a shoulder belt. It is a Bag of Holding, with two items inside it, 3 arrows of dragon slaying, and a pair of levitation boots.
Once he realizes the lantern was responsible for the awakening undead, Mandilissimar will crack and depart, wailing, headed back to his crumbling tower. After the undead have been destoyed, the party can rest safely in the manor. When they go outside, they can easily recognize his hasty retreat up the trail. The trail is visible winding up into the mountains, disappearing around a curve high in the distance. If they take the trail, the tower is visible high overhead.
The characters can reach the tower in about 2 hours, and can move right to the front door. From the outside, it is difficult to understand how the building manages to remain standing. It is four stories tall. The upper floor and the main floor seem to be intact, but the two intervening floors are exposed to the air, with partially collapsed walls and floors and stairs. In order to cure Mandilissimar of his madness, he'll need to have Greater Restoration cast on him. Lesser Restoration or Calm Emotions will give him temporary relief, but the madness can still return or get triggered anew.
Mandilissimar will not recognize anyone as friendly in his exasperated state. When the party arrives at the tower, he is in the first floor. If they call out to him, he will warn them to leave or face his wrath. Then, he will scurry up the tower to the third floor, where he will cast spells from the exposed rubble.

Find the Missing Artifact

The manor is full of undead creatures. The magic of the lich has bound them to the premises. They are locked into different areas of the manor, trapped as the lich is by magical force. The lich has convinced the eager Mandilissimar to brew three different colored potions (red, green, and blue) to unlock the magical barriers and release the undead. The potions themselves only attract undead, but Mandilissimar has also been guided in the creation of a special lantern.

The lantern is an activator for the undead. Led to believe the key to finding the artifact he seeks is tied to the full moon, Mandilissimar has crafted a lantern that gives off an ethereal moonlight. This aura given off by the lantern reanimates the undead when they are within its area of effect. Once active and out of their starting locations, they are fully activated and act accordingly, drawn toward any individual attracting them.

If the lantern is broken or shattered, it explodes in a 10 foot burst of 2d6 necrotic damage. It also instantly activates all of the undead in the manor. Mandilissimar takes 3d6 psychic damage, and snaps (or once he realizes the lantern is awakening undead). He will leave for his ruined tower after this.

There are 32 ghouls, 12 ghasts, and 6 wights trapped within the manor. As the characters move through the house with the lantern, it will trigger the activation of the undead from their trapped locations. Anyone wishing to make an arcana check (DC25) to understand the lantern will know it is responsible for activating the undead. If they suspect it is the case, they can roll their arcana check with advantage.

The undead are scattered throughout the different rooms of the house, so only partial numbers of them are activated at any one time. Once they are activated, they remain active, and will be drawn toward anyone who drank their color of wine - red attracts wights, green attracts ghouls, and blue attracts ghasts. If no one has drunk an attracting color, those monsters roam randomly, seeking out living victims.

The map attached is one I found on Roll20 that I like. I have shaded areas with blue, red and green as starting areas for the undead. There are six red areas, each with 1 wight in the room. For the 6 blue areas, each contains 2 ghasts, with 2 ghouls in each of the 16 green shaded areas. The lantern gives off a magical aura that can pass through walls, so any undead within 20 feet of it are activated whether in line of sight or behind a wall. The numbers are high, but the idea is that only a few will be activated at a time, so the numbers really play out as 5 or 6 encounters. 

The other element of the manor is the small courtyard with a pool, overlooked by a statue. There are two gargoyles perched on either side of the southern door, that appear to be nothing more than statues under inspection. The artifact Mandilissimar seeks is located in a chest concealed beneath the water of the pool. There is a hidden catch on the back of the statue that causes the chest to rise, but also awakens the two gargoyles placed in the room to guard it. Within the chest are the lich's phylactery and a magical tome. The tome is important to the main quest, but will take time to decipher. Mandilissimar can assist with this if he is not mad, but he will need to be cured of his illness and take a long rest before he can gather anything from the text.

Haunted House

Mandilissimar is a powerful mage, slowly getting driven mad by the voices speaking to him in his dreams. The voices are the urgings of a lich, defeated and trapped within a magic box, unable to activate its phylactery and return to life. The voices have been manipulating Mandilissimar into activating undead and searching for the lost phylactery.

When the party arrives at the manor, they arrive with little more than rumors and suspicions overheard in town (history DC15, with the DM sprinkling whatever kind of flavor fits their campaign best). For me, that would mean there is a crazy wizard who lives in the mountains, in some tower or old mansion. The whole valley is haunted, and no one dares travel there alone anymore, especially at night. The mansion was once the home of a powerful magic user who collected rare and powerful artifacts, as well as information from every source they encountered in the mountains. It is even rumored that he spoke with dragons, before the terror came.

The terror was crippling, as horrors awoke somewhere in the hills and descended on the towns and farms, killing wantonly, and driving the lucky ones away in terror. A hardy band of warriors was sent into the hills to curb the nightmare, and after many months returned, the horrors in check. They came into town, pale and haggard, collected their reward, and disappeared on the morning wind, never speaking of what they had seen and overcome.

Now, the mad wizard has come, and the unrest is growing. There are undead out at night again, making their way down the mountainsides, driving farmers into the town for safety. Some blame Mandilissimar for the undead, most blame him for rousing them from a long slumber with his mad experiments.

Mandilissimar is convinced the location of the treasure he seeks can only be revealed under the light of the full moon. He has been crafting potions meant to simulate the light of the full moon, and to heighten his awareness to search more widely when the full moon rises. In reality, the potions he is concocting are actually attracting the undead, with different colors drawing in different varieties of undead. He is brewing the potions on the dream visitations of the lich, and doesn't realize their true effect in the blindness of his search.

When the party arrives, he will invite them in after a certain rushed anxiety over their interruption of his planned search that evening. His invitation is genuine, even while his tone is brusque. He feels that he can take advantage of the extra eyes and bodies to search the entire mansion during the evening. He will offer them dinner, and even if they refuse, will provide drinks for them - red, green, and blue liquors decanted on the table in the kitchen. These are his special formulas. Their taste is pleasant, if slightly bland, and they don't appear to have any adverse effect when taken.

Once the moon rises, their magic is awakened, and each color will act as a pheromone to a specific kind of undead monster, which will waken with the moon and be drawn toward anyone who drank their color of elixir.

Tomorrow, we'll work out some logistics for an encounter, and pull this together.

Mad Mage

What would D&D be without a mad mage? In this case, the mad mage is Mandilissimar. He is a wizard that has based himself in a crumbling tower high in the eastern mountains. He has spent long years searching for an artifact rumored to have been concealed somewhere in these peaks. Over the years, much of his tower has collapse around him from disuse and lack of upkeep. The main floor, a basement level, and the upper chamber of the tower are all that remain intact. The strength of his magic may be the only thing holding the tower together at this point.
In the last two years, he became aware of a haunted manor built on a ledge overlooking the breadth of the valley from a partially secluded spur. Long avoided by anyone because of the undead crawling the hillside around it, Mandilissimar became obsessed with unlocking its mysteries. Anything imbued with that much magic must be done with purpose, and he expected it to be the location of the artifact he sought.
Using his magic to protect him, he moved into the abandoned manor, which was oddly preserved. For a manor that had been abandoned to the elements over 300 years ago, the building showed no signs of decay or the encroachment of nature. Over the last year, Mandilissimar searched every inch of the manor, increasingly convinced that it held some telling secret that he needed to unlock. Yet he has been unable to uncover anything.
He has, however, been constantly bombarded by voices urging him to continue, suggesting ideas of research and guiding his actions. The madness is pervasive inside the manor, and Mandilissimar's reason has begun to slip away. He has become convinced that the key to unlocking the manor's secret will only be revealed under the light of the full moon, which is coming up during the party's visit. To that end, he has prepared a series of elixirs to enhance the senses and aid in the revelation of the key.
Behind all of this is a far deadlier reality. The manor is the former estate of a powerful wizard that became a lich, gathering undead forces to it and terrorizing the valley below. Somewhere along the way, its appetite ceased to get fed regularly, and it became a demilich. Its phylactery is concealed within the manor grounds, but the lich had gotten complacent, and without souls, become a demilich. 80 years ago, some brave adventurers had defeated the demilich, but left without locating its phylactery. Fortunately, they had the foresight to magically trap the demilich's skull in another container on the grounds, so that when it awoke, it was trapped and unable to escape. It used its power to draw undead beings to the manor, and lure Mandilissimar as well. It has been whispering to him in his dreams, encouraging him to embrace the dark magical arts of necromancy, and slowly driving him mad.
Tomorrow, I'll finish up with the backstory, and lay out the bones of this encounter.

Moving On

There are many others options for interaction and adventure based in and around Aronburg. If the party want more social or political engagement, or prefer to drive off bandits, clear out raiders, chase down miscreants and rescue kidnapped citizens, Aronburg is a good base for spinning those out.
At some point, it is time to get back on the way toward the Upper Valley and the purpose of their quest. That makes it an excellent time to introduce elements connected to that theme. As it stands, the party is headed upriver to explore the Upper Valley of Aron's Bowl for signs of dragons, and to take action if it proves out that the winged terror is a threat to the people of the vale and by extension, the whole upper coast of the world. It is known that the far side of the mountains ringing the valley tower over the coast, so a vengeful dragon is a serious threat to trade.
Along the way, they discovered that a cult of dragon worshippers had secured an artifact and were working to gather followers for a major assault. Defeating them, the characters took the artifact and continued on their way. While they have had encounters related to this since, those have been ancillary to the main story line. Now, the time has come to start bringing those elements back into the main focus for this adventure arc.
The next 50 miles of the journey are along the Flushing River basin leading from Aronburg to Deadfall. Ordinarily, this is a long day's journey, although making it in two allows a more leisurely pace, and a chance to stay one more night in the lush valley before climbing up into the less hospitable Upper Valley. This will help with advancing the story as well in this case. An encounter with a traveling salesman on the road outside of town will lead to a mention of the necklace the party has had in their possession since the kobold shrine early on in their journey, and the indication that there is a wizard's tower in the mountains to the east that is rumored to hold great stores of information about dragons and their ilk.
This tower can be reached by taking a little used track up into the hills to the east near the town of Casper, about 20 miles from Deadfall. A late start leaving Aronburg will bring the party into Casper in the mid to late afternoon. If they choose to ask anyone in the town about the wizard, they will meet with a reluctance to speak. Rolling well on a Streetwise or Persuasion check (DC16) will give them a good chance to draw information out. Basically, they will advise the party against visiting the "mad mage", and insist they wait until morning, at least.
That choice is theirs, and a check in the mid-20s will give them enough information to see the advice as sound. If they go at night, they will have trouble following the track, and get hounded by undead and ethereal spirits along the way once they reach the mountainside. I suppose wolves would be there too...
The trail is hard to follow (DC 18 by day, DC25 by night), but good Survival checks will keep them on it. If they move at half speed, they can roll with advantage, but the journey will take the entire day/night instead of six hours. This means increased opportunities for encounters on the road. The townsfolk say away from the area at night, and are reluctant to get too close to the mountain even during daylight, so that most encounters are with wolves and undead spirits.

Around Town

Ok, the criminal groups are active around the town, generally at night and around deliveries. Other than the Riflers operating on the western shore, the Thieves' Guild operates fairly openly along the waterfront, and the Swamp Rats through the marshy eastern shore. The Swamp Rats take advantage of their location to strike at targets up the Krithik River as well as trade on the lake itself.
With all of these, the party could stumble onto illicit activity, or be approached by officials or otherwise to investigate or deal with some aspect of them.
As a semi-legitimate enterprise, the Thieves' Guild tends to operate more conservatively than the other two groups. They also have a vested interest in town politics, and would very likely take the approach of hiring adventurers to investigate or disable their competition, especially the Riflers. The Riflers are a fast growing group expanding along all of the waterways of the realm from coast to peak.
For other interests, a good idea is for an object to have been stolen, and the concerned victim to engage the characters to recover it. This could take them into encounters against any or all of the groups. Kidnappings for ransom are also useful fodder for seeding a small detour.
Other possibilities have been used in this adventure arc already - finding an artifact, rousting a lair, looking for information, etc. All of these could springboard from encounters with townspeople. The image forming for me is like the towns of Oblivion and Skyrim, where there are several mini quests to get access to by walking around town speaking with its residents and travelers.
The beauty of that model is that the threat can be put in place at any time without interrupting the main plot. It is also a good way to introduce foils for the party. I really like the idea of a rival adventuring group that is effectively competing with the party for work.
We've played for over thirty years, and have always created and used multiple characters in overlapping stories. It is logical to assume that more than one group have heard about dragons in these hills drawing their interest to bear.
It is safe to assume that the stability of the government is still a work in progress. As such, if the DM wants to explore political elements and plots, they could easily begin.

Side Quests

There are a number of excursions that can be built around the town of Aronsburg. The river smugglers are the largest and most ready-made for confrontation. They have regular interaction with the river, docks and warehouses. There is a chance every night of some type of encounter. Obviously, on days before or after a large shipment arrives, there is a greater chance of activity.
The usual process for the smugglers is to put in somewhere the night before the freight is officially unloaded, so any contraband can be smuggled off before the bean counters arrive. For outgoing product, the reverse is true and boats will stop across the river before leaving Aronburg to take on cargo.
Depending on how the DM wishes to play this out, the party can stumble across the activity, or the town leaders could enlist their aid as an outside interest to investigate, or the shopkeepers might grumble about "shady dealings" loud and often enough to arouse the characters' interest.
With multiple groups involved in smuggling and raiding, the DM also has a variety of choices of where to take the encounter. They can chase waterborne bandits operating across the river, or chase lizard folk gangs through the swamp.
I had other ideas of side treks when I sat down to type this, but after getting interrupted for an hour and trying to come back to it, I've got nothing. To be honest, sitting back down to type I can barely keep my eyes open, and I'm losing my train of thought in mid-sentence. Time to call it a night and revisit this after a night's sleep...

Town Organization

Aronburg grew from a small settlement at the edge of Long Lake. It was a location on a lake at the convergence of Flushing and Krithik Rivers. People settled here because it was expedient. As the town grew, a need for structured government came with it. Initially, this came in the form of small gangs battling over territory. With the establishment of more permanent structures such as docks and stores, and the regular movement of goods into the town from mines, Aron's Bowl, and the seaports downriver, more order was necessary.
This was achieved by having the local proprietors gather and select a leader for their town. They decided to legitimize the most dangerous gang boss, and task them with getting the lawlessness under control. This, of course, created more and different problems even though it did work at lowering the open conflict in the streets.
While folks have lived and base themselves in this area for hundreds of years, the establishment of the town as anything that could be labeled as such happened 60 years ago. The town grew quickly, so that they hired their Town Master and Guard after a difficult 10 years. Over the next 15 years, the town grew quickly. More people poured up and down river into Aronburg, and brought with them higher expectations of what government and a town guard meant. The gangs were replaced with hired men trained by a captain chosen for the task from the army of the Duke who had been serving in Pinching on the coast.
More people meant more calls for a proper leader. The choice of Captain Flynn to command the town guard was a good one, but there was never a thought that he would hold any position of authority in the town other than law and order. The idea of a Town Master was looked down upon, thanks in large part to the shady dealings of the early choices made by the town. After Captain Flynn was hired, the town held a meeting with the newly appointed guard ensuring the meeting would be safe and not dominated by any one faction. Out of this meeting, the town chose Mabry Delmar to serve as the first mayor. Mabry was barely competent, but he understood that his position came at the whimsy of the town council, so he did what he could at any point to encourage that whimsy.
Eventually, Delmar and Flynn passed on, but their work in putting systems in place was successful enough to set the pattern the town has followed since. Currently, Amber Belstrand is the Lady Mayor of Aronburg. The captain of the watch is Wesley Abrington. They are both extremely competent and have made the town safe and prosperous.

Nocturnal Wanderings

Aronburg is the glowing cap of the expanding civilization of the Lower Aron Valley, but it hasn't been able to completely remove its seedy and unruly underside. It has gradually become a much safer and more predictably stable community. The town leaders have gone to great lengths to clean up the streets and crack down on criminal activity. They have created a town guard force and begun construction of a constabulary near the ridge at the edge of town. So far, the majority of change has been cosmetic, but with the cleaner look, a certain pride has awoken within the townsfolk so that they have toned down their wild ways to a low simmer.
The reality is that the town decided to protect and enhance their business interests, and brought in a town guard to begin the process. Any success they've found is due to their collective interest in the effort working. There are still flare-ups, but it is becoming a regular town, not a frontier wasteland. Unfortunately, as the town develops more organization and discipline, the criminal elements have also begun to get more organized. What had been random mobs and scuffles is becoming more structured.
The weird aspect of this is that as the criminals have gotten themselves organized, the volume of violence and disorder has shrunk to nothing, appearing to have made the town safer as certain threats have grown. The criminal groups are still in their infancy, so that at least 5 or 6 significant ones hold sway on the streets of Aronburg. There are three of these that have been able to look at the larger picture, spend more time building an infrastructure, and taken measures to set up semi-legitimate businesses they can use to conceal their criminal activity.
One of these is the local Thieves' Guild, which has bought most of the docks and warehouses in town, and profits by allowing illicit smuggling to occur alongside regular trade. They tend to skim a stiff percentage on most items they handle, calling it a tariff on trade if pressed to defend. Their intent is to be subtle and low-impact, so their presence and activity will be tolerated. They are more directly responsible for policing the waterfront than the actual town guard, though the guard is ignorant of the extent of their influence.
Another large group operates out of the marsh and swamp across the river north of town. This is a well-organized group, but they are small in number. They hire mercenary smugglers and thieves when they have need, rather than have a regular number of associates. They are known as a ruthless band of thieves, and operate largely unknown to the townspeople. The guard is aware of their existence, but have been unable to track the leaders down. Because they are based in the swamp, and run by a tight-knit, small group of bandits, they have proven difficult to locate.
The final group is the largest and best organized of the three, at least in terms of criminal activity. They operate entirely within the shadows behind a successful, legitimate concern. They have their own boats, docks and warehouses on the western shore - away from prying eyes, away from the guard, and away from the townspeople and their concerns.

More about location

Just a sketch, but a quick look at Aronburg showing the main roads, the ridge in the middle of the town, and the bridge over the marshy area east of town with the road heading up the ridge on the far side.
This is basic. There will be buildings on the western shore, as well as docks along the eastern. There are probably sporadic houses built in the marshy areas. The marsh is more an indication of high flood levels, with high ground in places. These are individual dwellings, built on stilts and set apart from each other.
There are many opportunities for adventure in this area. The steep ridge on the western shore is open and wild terrain. The swamp is more suggestive near the river and bridge, but definite swamp in its bulk and near the lake. This is particularly dangerous terrain since the lizard folk and other swamp creatures have so many ways to duck away and hide or disappear into the waters and muck.
South and east (on the town side of the rivers) leads into more settled territory, so there is less open threat in these locations. East of the ridge, the land is rougher, with marsh in several areas, and rocky moor-like terrain in many others. That makes it more unpredictable and dangerous, and creates a certain element of risk to move through.
There are regular boats moving up and down the river to the south toward the fall and the Upper Valley. There is also a fair amount of traffic on the road as well. Wagons come through about two per day, but any travel on the road is likely to bring some kind of encounter several times over the course of a day's journey.
Aronburg is a hub of activity in this region, and fairly settled and civilized. The docks and marsh dwellers, as well as the hardy souls on the western shore, are more volatile and sketchy, but even these areas tend to behave themselves during the daytime. Nighttime is a different story. The good folk lock themselves inside and try to deafen themselves to anything they might hear.
There is a strong criminal network operating along both rivers and around the docks and western shore. They even slip boats across the lake into the swamp to deal with lizard liaisons. Nighttime is a very different world to the daytime.

Aronburg

After all that yesterday, the first thought I had today was for a chase encounter in town...
But what about that town? What about the Lower Aron Valley? Is it Aronburg or Aronsburg? Critical questions, one and all.
Ok, I started out calling it Aronburg, so all the other references since that call it Aronsburg are erroneous. There's one question down.
It looks like the time has come to figure out what Aron's Bowl, Aron Valley, Aronburg, etc all are. Frankly, who is Aron? I'm not sure. When I started this out, I drew a map, liked the curling valley into the mountains that appeared, and realized it was a temperate region in an arctic setting due to volcanic activity and thermal hot springs. The valley looked like a bowl, and needed a name - Aron's Bowl. After that, it was just a distant destination. Now, we're nearly there.
This is an interesting look into the creative process. When I started, there was a blank piece of paper. After I drew the mountains, there was a valley and a town, a definite geography and history that appeared with the ink on the paper. It is revealed history, which I find fascinating because it feels like something that is understood from looking at the map, not at all something that is made up to fit a preconception.
For location, these mountains are far in the north. They are young, jagged peaks, steep and unforgiving. They are virtually impenetrable. But in the midst of all that there is a valley. The valley is fed by thermal springs, and is a temperate retreat in an unexpected region. Somewhere in the past, southern tribes headed into the mountains looking for their own space, and found a hidden paradise. They settled and created a small community isolated from the world.
Then the miners came. Dwarves and other human explorers filtered into the mountains skirting the valley and began prospecting. Due to the volcanic activity, their prospecting paid off. They found gold, silver and great mineral wealth. They naturally funneled into the settlement in the valley for supplies, food, and smiths to work their ore. In a short period of time, once word of the wealth to be found in the valley got out, the population of the valley swelled. But it swelled as a great mixing bowl of cultures, with humans, orcs, half-orcs, goblins, elves, dwarves and more pouring into the area to work in the mines, start their own mines, or profit off the riches of everyone else's mines.
The area that had started out as a refuge became a melting pot of lawlessness and discord. By and large, the various groups and business interests police their own areas, with a consensual low-key, hands-off view of the common areas. As long as no one gets too greedy or disruptive, no one challenges their petty criminal activity. So anything goes, as long as you can get away with it.
Lately, there has been a shift. More commerce is using the river, and connecting with sea ports and southern ports beyond via ship. This in turn is bringing more settlers into the region with an interest to profiting from the process. These have tended to congregate in the Lower Valley, south of the lake. As a result, Aronburg sprang up and has rapidly grown into the largest town in the area. Part of this is due to the organized construction and government of the town. It has led to farms popping up along the river between Aronburg and the fall from the Upper Valley.

Quiet Time

The rest of the trip into Aronsburg passes without incident. See you tomorrow.

Yesterday, I was finishing up and thought "every day it is another fight... D&D doesn't need to be that. You can have a session or encounter without it turning into a fight." Yet when I sit down to add this kind of content, there it is... you're ambushed, you see orcs or dragons...

So, here you go, nothing happens, next day. It's not enough, is it? The trouble is that when I start putting anything out there that isn't combat oriented, it comes off as exposition. Since I'm not trying to write a book here, I guess I'll keep offering combat scenarios.

It is an interesting microcosm of the current concept of D&D. So many times it gets boiled down to story, specifically story over combat, dice and grid-based game play. When we started playing back in the early 80s, it was all about tables and dice, ac and hp. Yet, 30 years down the line, what we remember about those games are the story elements. What's up? I know that I never made a dungeon thinking "what's the story here?" I (maybe) had an idea, drew a map, then flipped through the Monster Manual and Fiend Folio, dropping in whatever looked good. Looking back, those dungeons look bad! But no one remembers the ghost in the room next to the party of 6 NPCs next to the 10 orcs next to the green dragon, probably all in 20' square rooms.

We remember John the Fighter/Magic User elf trying to break up an altercation in a bar by firing his Wand of Wonders. First, there was a stream of butterflies. Not useful, he tried again, 6 inches tall. Not useful, he tried again - fireball! In a wooden bar, in a wooden town, high in the mountains... Heidrich's Strike was soon renamed Fireball Gulch. In a nod to the modern game, I do remember us working with townspeople to fight the fire, street by street, in a losing battle. Not who started the fight, how it went, what we rolled to fight the fire, none of that. We just remember the story.

My point is that I never designed a story. The "story" we remember is what happened when we played the settings, numbers, and monsters I did set up. I can pull those out of a notebook, and they'll just make you cringe, but that was the skeleton that grew the body of the story. I feel like story is what happens when you invest characters with players, sit down around a table (real or virtual), and start talking and rolling dice.

I don't know how to write the story elements. Only the encounters. Let the people playing them decide the story that works with the situation they find themselves presented with. That is kind of what my mantra with this site was meant to be, to create the bones of encounters in order to help gamers build their own stories. Here's a location and a situation, some adversaries and motivations, some natural effects and complications... begin.

I'm finished with my rant. I'd like to actually offer suggestions of non-combat encounters, but I have trouble presenting information that way. My solution is to pour out encounter scenarios, and to expound on locations and NPCs so that others can create their own non-combat situations based on them. I think the next section of this adventure is going to be through mostly inhabited territory, so it will work best to sketch out details about the town, leaders and NPCs, etc. In other words, I'll be flipping my comfort zone on its head to try another approach.

Long and Winding Road

Putting the ettins behind you, the party regains the road and continues on their way toward Aronsburg. Soon, the road begins descending back down the ridge toward the river cutting through the valley below. The trip down is arduous and difficult. The slope is steep and the road cuts back and forth making its way down.
After several hours on the dusty road, you finally begin to move across grassy meadows with small shrubs and trees dotting the hillside. The road begins to run down toward the lake in the distance, slowly converging with the river at a point five miles upstream from the lake. The swamp stretches back from the lake for miles along this shore, so that every step forward leads you closer to the marshy lowlands near the mouth of the river.
There are small clusters of trees and forest along the river and across the road where there is a danger of attack from bandits. These bandits can be anything from gangs of orcish goblinoids to rogue adventurers and miners looking for a more direct acquisition of gold.
As the party nears one of these copses of wood through which the road runs, they are attacked by a pair of wyverns (have the party roll perception/wilderness checks against stealth checks by the wyverns to determine whether they get a surprise attack or not). The wyverns will swoop down on the party to attack them, forcing them to decide on whether to fight or take shelter under the cover of the trees.
Hiding in the woods, waiting to ambush them as they pass through the dense canopy, is a band of 6 hobgoblins, led by two captains and a warlord. They are waiting, concealed in the woods (3 hobgoblins in trees with javelins), to jump the party as they pass through. If the wyverns drive the party into the woods, they will spring their attack early.
If the party remains in the open to fight the wyverns, the warlord will send three of the hobgoblins and one captain out to engage them while they are distracted with the wyverns. The other captain, the warlord, and the three hobgoblins in the trees will wait for the wyverns to finish with the characters or be driven off before openly attacking the party. Frankly, they are afraid of the wyverns.
Once everyone has been dealt with, the party can find a wagon of mining supplies - mostly ore and broken tools - that the hobgoblins captured during a recent ambush. There are two mules harnessed to the wagon, which are a little skittish at first, but can be calmed quickly if anyone has animal handling (DC12). Others can try by making the same skill check at disadvantage.
Further search will reveal a badly injured driver crawling toward the river. She is beyond healing, but holds out long enough to tell you that the wagon is headed to Martin's Trading Post, and to beg you to deliver it for her. Martin will pay them 200 gp for safely delivering the ore. She gives you an amulet she is wearing to show him in order to collect the payment. It has a silver chain, with an emerald set in the amulet, which is also silver. Before she dies, she tells you it is a family heirloom that she would like you to have.
Detect Magic or a successful DC25 Arcana check reveal it has magical properties...

Treasure and Trouble

Once you reach the higher reaches of the slope you are able to quickly identify three caves that show signs of traffic in and out. It seems clear that they have been serving as the ettins' living quarters for some time. Moving closer is unsettling, as you begin to notice piles of clean-picked bones scattered among the rocks. Occasionally, there are scraps of clothing and armor, as well as broken arrows and swords.
Moving closer also subjects you to a terrible odor that seems to pulse out of the cave mouths. The worst odor seems to come from the cave to the left, and the cave in the middle gives off the least.

As it turns out, the ettins had something of a little family home going here, complete with pets... They discarded their unwanted and extra organics in the left-hand cave, feeding a pair of otyughs that have taken residence in the offal piles. One of the ettins lived in the central cave, with a portion of treasure squirreled away in a smaller cave off the main chamber. In it is a pile of scavenged detritus including 700 cp, 200 ep, and 100 gp. There are also 6 weapons of note, two hand crossbows, a great sword, a trident, a +1 halberd and a whip. These all seem to have escaped the carnage that has enveloped the rest of the area.
The third cave, the one to the right of the others, was home to two of the ettins. They also have a small stash of treasure concealed in a back niche of their cave. They have less coin on hand, with 800 cp, 140 ep, and 10 gp. This cave is larger than the other two, and has a second chamber off the main chamber that has a long, narrow passage leading back into the hillside. Inside this chamber, the two ettins have a rust monster that they have been keeping as a pet, tossing their metal into the chamber for their pet to feed on.
The otyughs will remain still within the offal, striking out when someone nears them to search for items in the mess. The rust monster will come forward directly to attack when it smells metal inside the cave. It likes to stay deep within the narrow passage, so it won't be able to attack until a round or two after the party enters the larger cave, but once it notices their presence, it will move directly to strike at the character carrying the greatest piece of metal.
After all is said and done, if the party want to make a careful search of the entire site, allow them to locate four spell scrolls among the refuse. None of the creatures living here had any interest in magic, and discarded the scrolls with the clothing as useless. If you feel another magic item or a specific magic item would fit with your campaign, let them find that as well. I think an item or two off Table B or C would be sufficient.

Two Heads are Better than One

Of the overland encounters, the one that intrigues me the most (of those mentioned) is the ettin ambush on the scree-filled mountainside. This presents an interesting opportunity. Ettins are CR4, which shouldn't be a huge challenge for characters of this party's level. The difficulty of the terrain will be a good equalizer, but the strength of an ettin lies in their two damaging melee attacks.
Moving along the road is treacherous, but not especially difficult. The road runs fairly level across much of this ridge, eventually running down to the valley floor in a series of switchbacks. At this point, though, it is generally flat. What makes it treacherous is the dry, loose footing and the narrow track.
Much of the morning has been spent picking your way across the ridge, being careful not to slip down the seven hundred foot fall to the base of the rocks. Unfortunately, there has been a recent rockslide from somewhere higher up the hillside that has sent a pile of loose rocks skittering down across the roadway before you. Investigating the slide, you can see no safe way to get across the slide without clearing the road. This leaves you exposed and in danger of causing further slides from shifting the rocks.
High on the slope above, three ettins have emerged from their caves to watch the party's progress across the ridge. In a rare moment of consent, they all agreed to dislodge a few good-sized boulders which caused the hillside to cascade down and block the road. Perception DC25 to notice the ettins above, unless the characters actively look for something of that nature, in which case either drop the DC to 18, or give them advantage. I think if they have Survival as a skill, they should get advantage. If they actively look, lower the DC.
While the PCs work to clear the roadway, the ettins will shower them with rocks from above. They can be targeted in return from distance, or someone could attempt to climb up to them. From your vantage point, you can see that the ettins are near the upper limit of the slope. Above them, the cliffside is still intacts, and you can see several caves opening into them. The ettins are about 150 feet above the road. Climbing the hillside is difficult terrain, meaning all movement is halved. At the end of each move, the PCs need to make an Athletics DC18 saving throw to keep their footing. If they fail, they fall prone. If they fail by greater than 5, they slide down the hill 10 feet.
Once anyone starts to climb the slippery slope, two of the ettins will start down to battle them. They are more sure footed in this terrain out of familiarity, but more reckless about their descent, also. They can move down the slope in two turns, but have to make the same Athletics ST. The extra movement doesn't count as extra movement for them, allowing them to take an action on their turn as well. If they fail their ST, they can "ride the slide" for the extra 10 feet and not fall prone. They are eager to join the fight.
Once they are defeated, their caves can be searched for treasure. Among the discarded bones and scraps of armor scavenged from previous victims, there are a number of usable items still to be found. I'll have to figure out what at another time.

Lake Encounter

Time to revisit the lake for an encounter with lizardfolk.
The lizardfolk have set an ambush. The drawback to the lake crossing for the weekly barge is the predictability of its schedule. There is almost always an encounter during the journey, which led the bargemen to build up a series of sandbars and start fortifying them into a semi-permanent site. They have gathered up loose shale from the western shore to fit together into a series of walls and a small shelter.
They built two arches crossing a gap between two larger sandbars, offering a protected inner harbor and connection between islands. They have enclosed a small area for protection from the elements and night attackers.
The end plan is to fill in more of the gaps between islands and encircle the center with a complete wall. It is a work in progress. The lizardfolk have chosen this crossing to set an ambush. They have gotten to the fort early, with three inside the building, and five others hiding in the water around the islands. There is a shaman inside the hut. They will wait for the barge to be anchored and people to start offloading onto the land. The lizardfolk usually target the shipment, but tonight they plan to target the people.
The lizardfolk hiding in the water will slip around underwater to get behind the party and bargemen. If the encounter needs to be ramped up, more can be added. Another shaman would make a good challenge, as would a king/queen or several more lizardfolk. Individually, they are not overly strong, but they have multiple attacks, and are good for swarming. Since they can breathe underwater for 15 minutes, it is always possible to have more swim in from whatever direction you feel they should. Another good option is to find creatures like crocodiles that can be used as companions.

One if by land

The overland route is fraught with its own perils. The journey itself can be made in three days at full speed when the road is in good condition. Unfortunately, the road is seldom in pristine condition. The steep slopes and loose rock often cause blockage and erosion of the roadway, which can slow down travel time, not to mention weather conditions or ambush.
Generally, the added concerns only force a fourth day onto the trip, although extreme conditions can add more. The road up out of Chance is a slow and difficult climb, with many steep inclines. The positive part of this is that the town is built at the base of a particularly large peak, and the road makes a long, mostly straight climb around a spur of the mountain. After 12 miles, the road begins switching back and forth as it crosses steeper sections.
Eventually, the road drops down slightly into a high valley between this mountain and the next. There is a road running through this pass deeper into the mountains toward mines in the distance. The next ridge is much rougher and made of particularly loose gravel. The next third of the journey is arduous and slow, crossing high on the ridge, with a lot of loose, slide-prone rock above and below. This is a prime spot for ambushes due to its isolation and the vulnerability of exposure on the hillside. There are caves high along the slope where ettins like to dwell.
The last third of the journey features another road leading into the mountains east of this bowl to more mines. This road is fairly well traveled, since there are 2-3 large mines that send iron and silver down into the town of Aronsburg. The road is better kept, and quickly drops down into gentler slopes, where it runs through forested slopes and past the occasional farm. This also is prime country for banditry, with so many places to hide and disappear into the wilderness. It doesn't hurt that the road often sees well stocked wagons being carried up to the mines with food and other provisional supplies, or back with full coffers of ore straining the boards of the wagons holding it.
There are patrols that move through this area, nominally "protecting" travelers and tradesmen, although many of these tend to be mercenary, and barely less dangerous than outright bandits.
Shelter on the first and final third of the road is easy to find, although the protection it can provide tends to vary widely. The middle section is exposed, and not a good place to rest or find any shelter. Most travelers try to rest before and after crossing it, opting for long marches to try covering the distance in one day. This is countered by the condition of the road itself, and the malicious intent of the ettins above who look for such actions and intervene.

Along the Cliffside

This is a brief entry. I still want to develop the last encounter, but I feel like it needs a map and some numbers for monsters. Today wasn't the day for that, so I'd like to consider some other elements that would make this area interesting.
The hillside west of the lake is meant to be too steep to traverse. There are cliffs here, but they don't rise directly out of the water. The cliffs rise several hundred feet up the hillside from the lake. The danger here is falling rocks. The rock face of the cliffs is shale, and the base of the cliffs are steep, shifting piles of loose rock. Movement across the scree would be difficult terrain and require an athletics check each round to avoid falling or shifting the rock. The DC would be high, 25 to cross without incident, missing by greater than 5 would create a rockslide that would do 4d6 damage while moving you 30 feet downhill toward the water.
Attempting to scale the cliff would be difficult and dangerous as well, since the loose rock will not easily accept climbing gear such as picks and pitons. They are as likely to dislodge more rock as hold for passage. DC20 athletics check to climb with disadvantage. Failure means no movement or 2d6 damage from falling rock on a fail of 10 or more.
Stone Giants love these rocky walls, and can easily move up and down them without delay. They live in the higher ridges above the cliffs, and use this as a pathway down to the lake. There is a 1 in 6 chance of encountering 1-4 stone giants for each day on the lake. Often they can be seen wading or bathing in the waters at the base of the rockslide, though sometimes their mood is more playful, and they will stand high on the hillside and throw rocks at the barge as it passes.
The fort on the sandbar that is near the middle of the lake is closer to the cliff face than the swamp. No one feels safe near the swamp, and since it juts out near the middle of the passage, the bargemen have been forced to find a defensible resting spot closer to the cliffs. The giants like to gather at the top of the ridge and toss rocks down at the lights and voices coming up from the campsite.
The good news is that with every trip across the lake, there is more stone available to build up the fortification. At this point, there is a four foot high wall that encloses the area around the dock. They have even begun building a wall out into the water to serve as a breakwater or eventually to enclose the barge and dock within the stone walls. There is no shortage of material in this area.
There is a struggle against the shifting sands of the sandbar. It is difficult to build up since the weight of the stone causes it to settle more quickly. The currents (from the main river and a series of small streams that seem to drain out of the swamp in this region) also cause the sandbars to shift and make permanent building a difficult task.

Which Way?

This is difficult to prep for. There are very different encounters to develop depending on how the party decides to move ahead in their quest. I think that means we're going to be doing some roundy-roundy here, in order to cover all bases. There need to be four points covered, the conditions and elements of the journey by land and sea, and a sample encounter of each.
I'm starting with the lake. The barge makes a weekly trip from Chance to Aronsburg and back. The lake is about 20 miles from town to town, and the barge takes two full days to make the crossing each way, with a day layover for loading and unloading. The barge stays in Aronsburg an extra day on Sundays, leaving for Chance every Monday morning. Due to the shallow depths in many places, the barge is poled much of the way by a crew of six who work in two person shifts. The barge stops about half way across the lake. The towns shored up a sandbar near the middle of the lake that can be used as an anchor point and fortification against attack. Generally, the crew remain on the barge, but the fortification is there if needed. This part of the journey is the most dangerous. The threat of attack in the night by lizard folk from the marsh is almost guaranteed.
It has almost become ritual, with the barge anchoring, watch being set, an attack made from some direction, and the monsters repelled. The lizard folk seem to be interested in grabbing food and small trinkets, so the boatmen often leave a crate or two of food and odds and ends near the edge for easy picking. The fights are almost choreographed to allow them to take the food and go.
Now and again, there is more to the fights. On this occasion, the lizard folk have gotten to the island first, and set an ambush for the barge when it arrives. There are many lizard folk surrounding the area, waiting for a sign to attack.

Chance to Aronburg

This is a dangerous area. The route from Chance to Aronburg by boat crosses miles of exposed water that is threatened by a mix of swamp pirates and lizard folk. The depths can be challenging, as the lake is broad and shallow in several places. This isn't really a problem in terms of traversing the lake, but the careful navigation required is a significant time delay during the crossing.
Another danger are the spiny rock formations that run out into the lake from the steep western slope that runs down into the lake. This forces traffic to the east, which also puts it within easy contact of the swamps and marshlands of the eastern shore.
These swamps are home to lizard folk, and trolls further east. They are also full of many other kinds of similar monsters, including shambling mounds. There are also more mundane creatures based in the myriad waterways that feed and drain the swamplands. There are swamp pirates that hide deep within these swamps, coming out to prey on anything moving across the lake. They occasionally make raids on Chance or the roads in and out of that town, disappearing back into the swamp for cover.
The road around the area sweeps wide of the valley, rising along a steep ridge toward the eastern mountains, with trails running further up into the hills and to the mountains further east, where there are numerous mines. The road rides along the edge of a scree filled slope that runs down to the valley below. Much of the area within the arc of roadway is low and marshy much of the year. The dark green area of the map defines the swamp, but the marshy lowlands stretch well east of that.
This part of the trail is prone to attack from bandit gangs that live in caves higher up the hills. These bands are a wild mix of human, orc, lizard folk and many other humanoid creatures united by the opportunity to raid. A common attack involves ambush, with avalanches started and then the attackers descend. They may roll rocks onto the travelers, or try to block their movement ahead or back.
And let's face it... there are probably giants in this part of the world. Certainly stone giants and likely frost giants as well.

Chance Meetings

The next morning the party can continue their journey upriver on a return boat headed for Chance, a small town located at the mouth of a small lake formed by a bulge in the river near a tributary river flowing into the Flushing from the east. With the flat plain in this area, the merging of the rivers caused the formation of a long lake nearly five miles long. Stretching to nearly two miles in places, the edges are protected by a ring of trees that hug the edges of the lake.
The boat takes you upriver into the town at the northern edge of the lake and the town of Chance. From here, the party will need to either charter some kind of transportation to continue upriver across the lake, or wait for a weekly barge that travels from one end of the lake to the other carrying large volumes of supplies and trade goods.
There is a much larger town on the southern edge of the lake where the river connects to Aron's Bowl. That town is pretty much the northern outpost of the settled area at the base of Deadfall, the cliffs dropping from the Upper Valley to the Lower Valley. This area is where the greatest growth has taken place in the last few years, with the rough, territorial lawlessness of the Upper Valley giving way to the organization of small farming communities scattered along the river and spreading back from it toward the mountains in the distance.
The farming valley spreads about 50 miles from Deadfall to the head of the lake, where Krithik River rushes down from the east. This forms something of a boundary with the wilderness. The river is a quick moving torrent that tumbles down out of the high eastern peaks, cutting across the plain in a fairly direct path to the Flushing River. East of the lake, the land is low, and frequently floods, particularly in the spring-time. With the swell of spring melt, the lake nearly doubles in width, mostly to the east as it overflows its banks. The rest of the year, the area is marshy and swampy until late August into September, when the dryness of high summer finally dries the land out and pinches the lake down to barely river width.
There is no western road, as the western mountains rise sharply from the riverbank. The road east swings wide around the swamps, running 40-50 miles out from the river to cut south along the foot of the eastern mountains. It also is an extremely dangerous stretch of roadway, cutting through wild, rough forests and across barren stretches of exposed ridge, covered in loose scree.
Trade in and out of Aron's Bowl therefore mostly travels across the lake. The lake is unfortunately fairly shallow, making it difficult to navigate at times. Hence, a weekly barge and mercenary boatmen. All of which can be found in the town of Chance at the northern edge of the lake.